Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
